Bedside estimation of risk as an aid for decision-making in cardiac surgery

Field Value
Model ID00-006-01
Model NameBernstein-Parsonnet Score
Pubmed ID10750767
First AuthorBernstein
JournalAnnals of Thoracic Surgery
TitleBedside estimation of risk as an aid for decision-making in cardiac surgery
Primary Index ConditionCardiac Surgery
Secondary Index ConditionN/A
Model Sample Size8593
Cohort Sample Size10703
Number of Events455
Follow-Up DurationShort (<3 months)
Calibration Reported1
CovariatesFemale gender; Age 70-75; Age 76-79; Age 80+; Congestive failure; COPD, severe; Diabetes; Ejection fraction 30-49%; Ejection fraction <30%; Hypertension (>140/90, or history of hypertension, or currently taking antihypertension medication); Left-main disease (left main stem stenosis >=50%); Morbid obesity (over 1.5 times ideal weight); Preoperative IABP; Reoperation: first reoperation; Reoperation: second or subsequent reoperation; One valve, aortic (procedure proposed); One valve, mitral (procedure proposed); Valve + ACB (procedured proposed); Cardiogenic shock (urinary output <10 cc/hr); Endocarditis, active; Endocarditis, treated; LV aneurysm resected; One valve, tricuspid (procedure proposed); Pacemaker dependency; Transmural acute MI within 48 hr; Ventricular septal defect, acute; Ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, aborted sudden death; Asthma; Endotracheal tube, preoperative; Idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura; Pulmonary hypertension (mean pressure >30); Cirrhosis; Dialysis dependency; Renal failure, acute or chronic; Abdominal aortic aneurysm, asymptomatic; Carotid disease (bilateral or 100% unilateral occlusion); Peripheral vascular disease, severe; Blood products refused; Severe neurologic disorder (healed CVA, paraplegia, muscular dystrophy, hemiparesis); PTCA or catheterization failure; Substance abuse
Mesh TermsTo be updated
Number of Validations5

External Validations

1st Author Year Sample Size AUC Calibration Relatedness
Mejía 2012 1122 0.799 Yes Related
Mejia 2012 3000 0.8 Yes Related
Mejía 2012 429 0.807 Yes Distantly Related
Roque 2005 762 0.82 No Distantly Related
Berman 2006 1639 0.83 Yes Related